Brexit Progress?
Published 9.27.2016It's been over a month since LWRAS considered the status of England's exit from the European Union EU or Brexit, so let's take a look:
- While the Remain camp clearly overplayed its hand in terms of the immediate effects, the long term effects are still unknown and many risks remain.
- Not much has been decided yet regarding Brexit, and banks are getting impatient. Several have warned that they may not wait until the UK gets its act together to begin to relocate. Other countries, of course, are salivating to gain the jobs and tax revenues. The dithering is understandable, Brexit was never going to as easy as its proponents suggested and was always going to depend on the attitudes of the rest of the EU.
- A so-called "hard Brexit" seems to be the current thinking among many, in which the UK will control its borders, but then have to negotiate trade deals with each country rather than the EU as a whole. Facilitating trade was the original purpose of the EU. Scotland, which voted strongly to remain in the EU favors a "soft" Brexit that would be as close to the EU set up as possible. The drive for Scottish independence is bubbling again.
- The Scots still face the same barriers however to re-enter the EU. Scotland does not have an independent currency, and it is also not self-sufficient. England supports Scotland with tax pay outs. These are not minor issues to be overcome.
- The push for "hard" Brexit is all about immigration— which was the primary driver behind the vote. Putting up barriers will affect travel for Brits though as well. Warnings are being issued, but after the overwrought "Bremain" campaign, voters will be wary of those claiming the sky will fall.
- Not everyone is on the same page within the Tory Party. And Labour has seemed mostly out it except to kibitz from the sidelines. The UK does not want to lose its position in Global trade— much it through its position in the EU.
- However, Labour, still led by Jeremy Corbin, who was the only major party leader not to lose his position, has apparently decided its official position is to block Brexit. Given how half heartedly Corbyn campaigned against Brexit in the first place, this is unlikely to affect anything. Labour is also pushing the idea that any terms of separation should be approved by a majority of Parliament before being approved.
The bottom line: Three months in and there may be even less clarity than when the vote was first held, at least in terms of how the actual split will occur. Prime Minister Theresa May has seemingly established herself in power— the unnecessary review of a nuclear deal with Chinese was part of that— but otherwise, she hasn't provided any further inkling that she knows how to move the country to the next step.
In the mean time, businesses are stuck waiting and wondering what future landscape they will face. May said that Article 50, which starts the process to leave the EU, wouldn't be invoked prior to the end of 2016, at this rate of decision, it might not be invoked before the end of 2017.
A portion of the electorate in the US claims to want to "blow everything up." It's too bad they won't pay attention to the Brexit mess to see what that might mean.
Disclaimer
Search this site: