LW Research & Analysis Serivces

LW Research & Analysis Services

LW Research & Analysis Services


Iran Deal July Timeline

Updated 8.21.2015
The potential deal with Iran has been a subject of interest at LWRAS for months. If the US and Iran can begin a new era in relations, the implications would be far reaching. This page is not intended to be analysis, rather the intent is to collect further background material. Of course, there is a certain level of analysis even in the choice of links included, by no means are these links comprehensive or all inclusive. Choice of links and the associated commentary will also plainly indicate bias. The page will be updated as needed.

The ideal behind the negotiations (at least for the US and Europe) is that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, and this needs to be stopped. War, thankfully, seems to be off the table for the time being, but only because taking out the Iranian nuclear sites is far more difficult than taking out Iraq's was— in no small part because the Iranians learned from Saddam's mistakes.

Iran is also an oil producer that has been shut out of the open market because of its nuclear program. If this deal sticks, Iranian oil production will join the already over supplied world oil market.
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More items related to oil prices

Updated 6.4.2015
Ongoing collation of items related to the oil industry and oil prices. Previously entries in this series are here, here, and here.

Can US fracking companies be the "swing producers" to control market supply?

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) in an article entitled, "How OPEC Hurt Big Oil," reports on the recent meeting in Vienna between OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties) members, describing it as a counseling session. Big oil company profits are being crushed as the price remains low, but they have been invited to conference too to be counseled… or is that consoled?

However, as noted previously in this series, prices are off their lows, despite the fact that production continues to outstrip demand. US producers have backed off starting new fracking wells for the time being, but for projects having reached production, that oil is being drilled and produced.

The article takes as fact the idea that the Saudis have decided to push the role of "swing producer" onto the hodgepodge of private companies that are shale drillers in the US. This would seem to be a ridiculous notion on its face— these companies can't work together to stabilize the market even if they wanted to (and they do not) because such collusion would be illegal. So the more likely answer is that the Saudis want to destroy the shale oil market, and then will go back to setting oil prices where the kingdom wants them to be.
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A Brief Round Up of Oil news

Updated 6.2.2015
The state of the oil market hasn't been considered in this space in a while, so here's a brief round up of recent oil price news.

Tanker market send bearish signal

Oil prices are off their lows in recent months, but Bloomberg reports that indications from the tanker market are at odds with the oil bull narrative. OPEC is still pumping oil as fast as it can to protect its market share. There is a glut of oil being produced, so much so that a portion of it is now being stored on tankers at sea, which would seem problematic on a number of fronts.

Because the oil has to go somewhere once its out of the ground, the number of super tankers surged, a signal to some that the oil market was healthy. However, if the super tankers are mostly floating storage containers, bullish oil traders have bought into a bad bet. Next month Iraq is supposed to increase its production, though this prediction has been made previously.
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Throes of a dying dinosaur?

According the Wall Street journal in the article, "Verizon-AOL: A war of All against All," Verizon is buying AOL because owning the pipes isn't as valuable as it used to be, though the Journal blames the iPhone rather than Title II.
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