Making sense of trends and data

Political pot pourri

Published 1.30.2017
With little of his cabinet yet in place— presumably this will change this week— US President Trump and his cabal of close advisors continue to issue executive orders to "fulfill" campaign promises. Reaction to those orders and other Trump actions are the focus of todays links of interest.

  • Most of the orders will have little effect without Congressional action, however, the Muslim ban (to quote Rudy Giuliani) had immediate effects. Germany's Chancellor Merkel and Britain's Prime Minister (PM) May criticize Trump’s refugee ban.

    Ms. Merkel’s spokesman said the German chancellor had told Mr. Trump in the call that the United Nations Refugee Convention requires the international community take in war refugees on humanitarian grounds. The U.S. is a signatory to the convention’s 1967 protocol.

    Both women, their countries and indeed the rest of Europe, are in a tight spot, as both need the US to remain a part of the North American Treaty Organization (NATO).

  • Even before the immigration ban, Trump’s first week rattled leaders across the globe.

    At President Donald Trump ’s first joint press conference with a foreign leader on Friday, British Prime Minister Theresa May expressed her firm commitment to NATO and said sanctions on Russia should remain in place for now. Turning to look at Mr. Trump, she said, “Mr. President, I think you said, you confirmed that you’re 100% behind NATO.

    Trump nodded in response, but there is no way to know what he actually believes or will say. According to reports, in Trump’s hour long phone conversation with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto the two agreed not to speak publicly about Mexico paying for the wall. Now the waiting game begins to see if Trump can actually do that. It was a stock claim at his campaign rallies. Can Trump keep his word? The world watches to see.

    Mr. Trump told two European newspapers earlier this month that the EU was formed in part “to beat the United States on trade.”

    The European Union (EU) was formed to give the region a bit more power in world trade. Btu also to make trading between countries easier. It wasn’t a zero sum game. Trump seems to see everything as a zero sum game. Whatever else Europeans expected from a Trump presidency, the destruction of the EU probably was not part of the thinking.

  • The British PM is in a tight spot. The British need the trade deal with the US more than the US needs it with the EU nations not prepared to make nice in the face of Brexit. And Trump knows it. This is likely the reality (written before the immigration order):

    The new president, Mr. Shapiro suggested, will see Mrs. May’s desire to meet him first as a sign of weakness. “There’s no way Trump will say it that way face-to-face, but later it will come through in the relationship and in any U.S.-U.K. trade deal,” which he expects will not be particularly favorable to Britain.

    Others are less concerned.

    Mr. Meyer, the former ambassador, is less concerned. “She’s completely aware of the dangers, and I think she might turn out to be a bit of an iron lady in some of what she says,” he said. “She won’t sound like a supplicant. But getting the balance right between saying all the oleaginous things about the special relationship and saying the things that matter to us will be the key.

    May hasn’t been PM long enough to know how she will respond or if she’s another “Iron Lady.”

  • Trump also learned the dangers of negotiating via Twitter. The problem for the Mexican president is that Mexico is the weaker partner, despite the trade imbalance. He can’t be seen to grovel, yet that’s precisely what Trump demands. There is real money involved here, entire businesses have been built based on free passage across the border. It’s not clear to this observer that Trump fully recognizes that.


  • Advice about Trump from a Venezuelan, who has seen this populist show play out previously.

    The recipe for populism is universal. Find a wound common to many, find someone to blame for it, and make up a good story to tell. Mix it all together. Tell the wounded you know how they feel. That you found the bad guys. Label them: the minorities, the politicians, the businessmen. Caricature them. As vermin, evil masterminds, haters and losers, you name it. Then paint yourself as the savior. Capture the people’s imagination. Forget about policies and plans, just enrapture them with a tale. One that starts with anger and ends in vengeance. A vengeance they can participate in.

    Institutions of democracy are better established in the US than they were in Venezuela. The author’s broader point is well worth considering for those who want to successfully oppose Trump.




  • Trump’s border wall is not popular with the American public. The Wall Street Journal asked which of 17 policy goals Congress and Trump should pursue.

    Building a border wall ranked next-to-last as a top priority for this year, with 21% of people saying it should be pursued quickly. Some 55% said it should not be pursued at all, the largest share who said so of any of the 17 policy options.


  • Meanwhile, the crisis in Greece continues. The Greeks trying to get their creditors to reach an agreement before the next round of European elections take place.

    A meeting of eurozone finance ministers here didn’t reach a breakthrough that would clear the way for the conclusion of negotiations on the current review of Greece’s aid package of as much as €86 billion. But there is pressure to get a deal by February, because after that, a series of elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany and possibly Italy could distract attention and reduce governments’ interest in making any unpopular concessions on Greece.

    Greece needs billions by July to pay off debts that are coming due.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) still demands austerity, and the Germans still refuse to discuss debt relief. The Greeks want debt relief if they are going to be forced to continue to endure the pain of austerity.

  • There is already 650 miles of “wall” along the border. Much of the land along the border is unsuitable for a wall. But how many know this? Sanctuary cities began as a revolt against Obama's aggressive deportation actions.

    Many cities and counties stopped cooperating with federal immigration authorities, considering the Obama administration’s immigration enforcement overly aggressive. Mr. Obama eventually narrowed his deportation targets to serious criminals and recent border crossers.


  • Looking towards a new US trade deal with Britain.

    Three dozen U.S. companies are set to announce Thursday that they will form the U.S.-U.K. Business Council, which will be part of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the biggest American business lobby.

    The EU’s position is that Britain can’t start negotiations until they are out of the EU, but that’s not going to happen.

  • The Finns have figured out how to get communities to agree to have nuclear waste buried beneath them: Bribe them. Needless to say, other countries want to try and emulate Finland. Just as with the country’s stellar education system, that’s not going to be simple to do.
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